Knockout Math
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Celta vs Bournemouth: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Celta26th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Bournemouth12th, 3 pts
38%Celta win
26%Draw
35%Bournemouth win

The model gives Celta a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Bournemouth 35%. Celta's chance of going through is 64% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 48%. Bournemouth's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 94%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Celta: top 8Celta: throughBournemouth: top 8Bournemouth: through
Now9%64%57%97%
Celta win17%81%42%94%
Draw6%60%55%97%
Bournemouth win3%48%76%99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

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