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Celta vs Bournemouth: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Celta29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Bournemouth5th, 6 pts
34%Celta win
26%Draw
40%Bournemouth win

The model gives Celta a 34% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Bournemouth 40%. Celta's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 38%. Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 54%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeCelta: top 8Celta: throughBournemouth: top 8Bournemouth: through
Now2%54%70%>99%
Celta win5%75%54%99%
Draw1%51%68%>99%
Bournemouth win<1%38%86%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
26%Celta clean sheet
29%Bournemouth clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Celta

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LOmonia A0–1
  2. MD2LJuventus H1–2
  3. MD3Celtic A22 October
  4. MD4Union SG H5 November
  5. MD5Bournemouth H this match26 November
  6. MD6Marseille A10 December
  7. MD7Hapoel Beer-Sheva A21 January
  8. MD8Lillestrøm H28 January

Bournemouth

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WReal Sociedad A2–1
  2. MD2WSturm Graz H3–0
  3. MD3Milan H22 October
  4. MD4Sparta Praha A5 November
  5. MD5Celta A this match26 November
  6. MD6Viktoria Plzeň H10 December
  7. MD7Lillestrøm A21 January
  8. MD8Hapoel Beer-Sheva H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Celta Vigo vs Bournemouth?

The model gives Celta a 34% chance of winning and Bournemouth 40%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Bournemouth?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Celta and 1.4 for Bournemouth, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Celta?

Celta's qualification chance is 54% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 51% and a defeat 38%.

What does this match mean for Bournemouth?

Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% right now. A win would make it 86%, a draw 68% and a defeat 54%.

When is Celta vs Bournemouth played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →