Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
The model gives Crystal Palace a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Real Sociedad 26%. Crystal Palace's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 83%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 60%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Crystal Palace: top 8 | Crystal Palace: through | Real Sociedad: top 8 | Real Sociedad: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 27% | 93% | 5% | 72% |
| Crystal Palace win | 40% | 98% | 1% | 60% |
| Draw | 19% | 91% | 4% | 74% |
| Real Sociedad win | 10% | 83% | 14% | 91% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Crystal Palace
- MD1WLech Poznań H4–0
- MD2LLyon A2–3
- MD3Beşiktaş A22 October
- MD4Hoffenheim H5 November
- MD5Real Sociedad H this match26 November
- MD6Jagiellonia A10 December
- MD7Sparta Praha H21 January
- MD8Salzburg A28 January
Real Sociedad
- MD1LBournemouth H1–2
- MD2DUnion SG A1–1
- MD3Lillestrøm A22 October
- MD4Lyon H5 November
- MD5Crystal Palace A this match26 November
- MD6Torreense H10 December
- MD7Viktoria Plzeň H21 January
- MD8Juventus A28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad?
The model gives Crystal Palace a 48% chance of winning and Real Sociedad 26%, with a draw at 25%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Crystal Palace and 1.1 for Real Sociedad, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.
What does this match mean for Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 91% and a defeat 83%.
What does this match mean for Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 91%, a draw 74% and a defeat 60%.
When is Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad played?
Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 5).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Ararat-Armenia
- Viktoria Plzeň – Benfica
- GNK Dinamo – Leverkusen
- Olympiacos – Milan
- Marseille – Levski Sofia
- Union SG – Lech Poznań
- Celta – Bournemouth
- Sparta Praha – AZ Alkmaar
- Ferencváros – Celje
- Juventus – Omonia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Celtic
- Sunderland – Jagiellonia
- Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz