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Union SG vs Lech Poznań: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Union SG12th, 4 pts
–Matchday 5
Lech Poznań36th, 0 pts
63%Union SG win
21%Draw
16%Lech Poznań win

The model gives Union SG a 63% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Lech Poznań 16%. Union SG's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 86%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 44%, a defeat to 12%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeUnion SG: top 8Union SG: throughLech Poznań: top 8Lech Poznań: through
Now33%96%<1%19%
Union SG win42%99%<1%12%
Draw19%94%<1%21%
Lech Poznań win12%86%1%44%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.0 – 0.9Expected goals
49%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
43%Union SG clean sheet
14%Lech Poznań clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Union SG

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WViktoria Plzeň A3–0
  2. MD2DReal Sociedad H1–1
  3. MD3Hapoel Beer-Sheva H22 October
  4. MD4Celta A5 November
  5. MD5Lech Poznań H this match26 November
  6. MD6Lyon A10 December
  7. MD7Beşiktaş A21 January
  8. MD8Celtic H28 January

Lech Poznań

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -8

  1. MD1LCrystal Palace A0–4
  2. MD2LLeverkusen H0–4
  3. MD3Sunderland H22 October
  4. MD4Benfica A5 November
  5. MD5Union SG A this match26 November
  6. MD6Ferencváros H10 December
  7. MD7Torreense H21 January
  8. MD8OFI Crete A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań?

The model gives Union SG a 63% chance of winning and Lech Poznań 16%, with a draw at 21%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznań?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 2.0 for Union SG and 0.9 for Lech Poznań, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Union SG?

Union SG's qualification chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 94% and a defeat 86%.

What does this match mean for Lech Poznań?

Lech Poznań's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 44%, a draw 21% and a defeat 12%.

When is Union SG vs Lech Poznań played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →