Union SG vs Lech Poznań: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45
Union SG5th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Lech Poznań35th, 0 pts
58%Union SG win
23%Draw
19%Lech Poznań win
The model gives Union SG a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Lech Poznań 19%. Union SG's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 80%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 59%, a defeat to 24%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Union SG: top 8 | Union SG: through | Lech Poznań: top 8 | Lech Poznań: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 40% | 92% | 2% | 33% |
| Union SG win | 51% | 97% | 1% | 24% |
| Draw | 29% | 89% | 1% | 35% |
| Lech Poznań win | 20% | 80% | 6% | 59% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Ararat-Armenia
- Viktoria Plzeň – Benfica
- GNK Dinamo – Leverkusen
- Olympiacos – Milan
- Marseille – Levski Sofia
- Celta – Bournemouth
- Sparta Praha – AZ Alkmaar
- Crystal Palace – Real Sociedad
- Ferencváros – Celje
- Juventus – Omonia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Celtic
- Sunderland – Jagiellonia
- Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz