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OFI Crete vs Anderlecht: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

OFI Crete18th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Anderlecht28th, 0 pts
35%OFI Crete win
26%Draw
38%Anderlecht win

The model gives OFI Crete a 35% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Anderlecht 38%. OFI Crete's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 34%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 57%, a defeat to 20%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeOFI Crete: top 8OFI Crete: throughAnderlecht: top 8Anderlecht: through
Now2%52%1%38%
OFI Crete win4%75%<1%20%
Draw1%48%<1%33%
Anderlecht win<1%34%2%57%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
27%OFI Crete clean sheet
28%Anderlecht clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

OFI Crete

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WHoffenheim H2–0
  2. MD2LRennes A1–2
  3. MD3Leverkusen H22 October
  4. MD4Hapoel Beer-Sheva A5 November
  5. MD5Anderlecht H this match26 November
  6. MD6Benfica A10 December
  7. MD7Sturm Graz A21 January
  8. MD8Lech Poznań H28 January

Anderlecht

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LLyon H1–2
  2. MD2LGNK Dinamo A0–1
  3. MD3Jagiellonia A22 October
  4. MD4Salzburg H5 November
  5. MD5OFI Crete A this match26 November
  6. MD6Hoffenheim H10 December
  7. MD7Sunderland H21 January
  8. MD8Marseille A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in OFI Crete vs Anderlecht?

The model gives OFI Crete a 35% chance of winning and Anderlecht 38%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in OFI Crete vs Anderlecht?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for OFI Crete and 1.3 for Anderlecht, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for OFI Crete?

OFI Crete's qualification chance is 52% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 48% and a defeat 34%.

What does this match mean for Anderlecht?

Anderlecht's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 57%, a draw 33% and a defeat 20%.

When is OFI Crete vs Anderlecht played?

Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →