Milan vs Ferencváros: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45
Milan30th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Ferencváros6th, 3 pts
69%Milan win
19%Draw
12%Ferencváros win
The model gives Milan a 69% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Ferencváros 12%. Milan's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. Ferencváros's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 79%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Milan: top 8 | Milan: through | Ferencváros: top 8 | Ferencváros: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 46% | 95% | 20% | 83% |
| Milan win | 54% | 98% | 15% | 79% |
| Draw | 30% | 90% | 25% | 87% |
| Ferencváros win | 20% | 86% | 46% | 96% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Sparta Praha – Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim
- Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Omonia
- Levski Sofia – Jagiellonia
- Real Sociedad – Lyon
- Anderlecht – Salzburg
- Rennes – Olympiacos
- AZ Alkmaar – Juventus
- Leverkusen – Marseille
- Celtic – Beşiktaş
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – OFI Crete
- Celta – Union SG
- Torreense – Ararat-Armenia
- Sturm Graz – Celje
- Benfica – Lech Poznań
- Sunderland – GNK Dinamo