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Milan vs Ferencváros: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Milan16th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Ferencváros7th, 6 pts
66%Milan win
20%Draw
14%Ferencváros win

The model gives Milan a 66% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Ferencváros 14%. Milan's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. Ferencváros's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeMilan: top 8Milan: throughFerencváros: top 8Ferencváros: through
Now55%99%34%97%
Milan win66%>99%25%96%
Draw39%98%40%99%
Ferencváros win24%96%67%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.1 – 0.8Expected goals
48%Both teams score
55%3 or more goals
44%Milan clean sheet
13%Ferencváros clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Milan

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1LBenfica H0–2
  2. MD2WSalzburg A4–0
  3. MD3Bournemouth A22 October
  4. MD4Ferencváros H this match5 November
  5. MD5Olympiacos A26 November
  6. MD6Sunderland H10 December
  7. MD7Levski Sofia A21 January
  8. MD8Ararat-Armenia H28 January

Ferencváros

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WCeltic A3–1
  2. MD2WViktoria Plzeň H2–1
  3. MD3Torreense H22 October
  4. MD4Milan A this match5 November
  5. MD5Celje H26 November
  6. MD6Lech Poznań A10 December
  7. MD7Juventus H21 January
  8. MD8Hoffenheim A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Milan vs Ferencváros?

The model gives Milan a 66% chance of winning and Ferencváros 14%, with a draw at 20%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Milan vs Ferencváros?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 2.1 for Milan and 0.8 for Ferencváros, and the match has 3 or more goals in 55% of cases.

What does this match mean for Milan?

Milan's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 96%.

What does this match mean for Ferencváros?

Ferencváros's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 99% and a defeat 96%.

When is Milan vs Ferencváros played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →