Anderlecht vs Salzburg: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45
Anderlecht23rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Salzburg14th, 3 pts
38%Anderlecht win
26%Draw
35%Salzburg win
The model gives Anderlecht a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Salzburg 35%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 69%, a defeat to 34%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 80%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Anderlecht: top 8 | Anderlecht: through | Salzburg: top 8 | Salzburg: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 5% | 50% | 29% | 88% |
| Anderlecht win | 10% | 69% | 16% | 80% |
| Draw | 3% | 45% | 25% | 88% |
| Salzburg win | 1% | 34% | 47% | 97% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Milan – Ferencváros
- Sparta Praha – Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim
- Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Omonia
- Levski Sofia – Jagiellonia
- Real Sociedad – Lyon
- Rennes – Olympiacos
- AZ Alkmaar – Juventus
- Leverkusen – Marseille
- Celtic – Beşiktaş
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – OFI Crete
- Celta – Union SG
- Torreense – Ararat-Armenia
- Sturm Graz – Celje
- Benfica – Lech Poznań
- Sunderland – GNK Dinamo