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Anderlecht vs Salzburg: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Anderlecht28th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Salzburg21st, 3 pts
38%Anderlecht win
26%Draw
36%Salzburg win

The model gives Anderlecht a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Salzburg 36%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 57%, a defeat to 21%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 84% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 73%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAnderlecht: top 8Anderlecht: throughSalzburg: top 8Salzburg: through
Now1%38%12%84%
Anderlecht win2%57%4%73%
Draw<1%32%8%83%
Salzburg win<1%21%23%96%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
28%Anderlecht clean sheet
27%Salzburg clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Anderlecht

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LLyon H1–2
  2. MD2LGNK Dinamo A0–1
  3. MD3Jagiellonia A22 October
  4. MD4Salzburg H this match5 November
  5. MD5OFI Crete A26 November
  6. MD6Hoffenheim H10 December
  7. MD7Sunderland H21 January
  8. MD8Marseille A28 January

Salzburg

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1WLevski Sofia A1–0
  2. MD2LMilan H0–4
  3. MD3Celje A22 October
  4. MD4Anderlecht A this match5 November
  5. MD5Ararat-Armenia H26 November
  6. MD6Sparta Praha H10 December
  7. MD7Leverkusen A21 January
  8. MD8Crystal Palace H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg?

The model gives Anderlecht a 38% chance of winning and Salzburg 36%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Anderlecht and 1.3 for Salzburg, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Anderlecht?

Anderlecht's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 57%, a draw 32% and a defeat 21%.

What does this match mean for Salzburg?

Salzburg's qualification chance is 84% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 83% and a defeat 73%.

When is Anderlecht vs Salzburg played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →