Knockout Math
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Anderlecht vs Salzburg: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Anderlecht23rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Salzburg14th, 3 pts
38%Anderlecht win
26%Draw
35%Salzburg win

The model gives Anderlecht a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Salzburg 35%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 69%, a defeat to 34%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 80%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Anderlecht: top 8Anderlecht: throughSalzburg: top 8Salzburg: through
Now5%50%29%88%
Anderlecht win10%69%16%80%
Draw3%45%25%88%
Salzburg win1%34%47%97%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

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