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Sturm Graz vs Celje: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Sturm Graz26th, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
Celje35th, 0 pts
55%Sturm Graz win
24%Draw
21%Celje win

The model gives Sturm Graz a 55% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Celje 21%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 61%, a defeat to 22%. Celje's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 40%, a defeat to 10%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSturm Graz: top 8Sturm Graz: throughCelje: top 8Celje: through
Now1%46%<1%19%
Sturm Graz win2%61%<1%10%
Draw<1%35%<1%19%
Celje win<1%22%1%40%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
38%Sturm Graz clean sheet
18%Celje clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Sturm Graz

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1DRennes H0–0
  2. MD2LBournemouth A0–3
  3. MD3Marseille H22 October
  4. MD4Celje H this match5 November
  5. MD5Hoffenheim A26 November
  6. MD6AZ Alkmaar A10 December
  7. MD7OFI Crete H21 January
  8. MD8GNK Dinamo A28 January

Celje

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LLeverkusen A0–2
  2. MD2LOmonia H0–3
  3. MD3Salzburg H22 October
  4. MD4Sturm Graz A this match5 November
  5. MD5Ferencváros A26 November
  6. MD6Olympiacos H10 December
  7. MD7Ararat-Armenia A21 January
  8. MD8N.E.C. Nijmegen H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Sturm Graz vs Celje?

The model gives Sturm Graz a 55% chance of winning and Celje 21%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Celje?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sturm Graz and 1.0 for Celje, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Sturm Graz?

Sturm Graz's qualification chance is 46% right now. A win would make it 61%, a draw 35% and a defeat 22%.

What does this match mean for Celje?

Celje's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 40%, a draw 19% and a defeat 10%.

When is Sturm Graz vs Celje played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →