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Leverkusen vs Marseille: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Leverkusen2nd, 6 pts
–Matchday 4
Marseille32nd, 0 pts
59%Leverkusen win
23%Draw
19%Marseille win

The model gives Leverkusen a 59% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Marseille 19%. Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 66%. Marseille's chance of going through is 68% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 59%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLeverkusen: top 8Leverkusen: throughMarseille: top 8Marseille: through
Now83%>99%4%68%
Leverkusen win91%100%1%59%
Draw77%>99%4%72%
Marseille win66%99%14%89%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
40%Leverkusen clean sheet
16%Marseille clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
3–06%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Leverkusen

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +6

  1. MD1WCelje H2–0
  2. MD2WLech Poznań A4–0
  3. MD3OFI Crete A22 October
  4. MD4Marseille H this match5 November
  5. MD5GNK Dinamo A26 November
  6. MD6Beşiktaş H10 December
  7. MD7Salzburg H21 January
  8. MD8Lyon A28 January

Marseille

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LBeşiktaş A1–4
  2. MD2LOlympiacos H0–1
  3. MD3Sturm Graz A22 October
  4. MD4Leverkusen A this match5 November
  5. MD5Levski Sofia H26 November
  6. MD6Celta H10 December
  7. MD7Celtic A21 January
  8. MD8Anderlecht H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?

The model gives Leverkusen a 59% chance of winning and Marseille 19%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Leverkusen and 0.9 for Marseille, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Leverkusen?

Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% right now. A win would make it 91%, a draw 77% and a defeat 66%.

What does this match mean for Marseille?

Marseille's qualification chance is 68% right now. A win would make it 89%, a draw 72% and a defeat 59%.

When is Leverkusen vs Marseille played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →