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Ararat-Armenia vs N.E.C. Nijmegen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Ararat-Armenia34th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
N.E.C. Nijmegen27th, 1 pt
23%Ararat-Armenia win
25%Draw
52%N.E.C. Nijmegen win

The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 23% chance of winning, a draw 25% and N.E.C. Nijmegen 52%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 6% now: a win would take it to 16%, a defeat to 2%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 53% now: a win would take it to 68%, a defeat to 30%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeArarat-Armenia: top 8Ararat-Armenia: throughN.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: through
Now<1%6%2%53%
Ararat-Armenia win<1%16%<1%30%
Draw0%4%1%44%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win0%2%4%68%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.6Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
19%Ararat-Armenia clean sheet
36%N.E.C. Nijmegen clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Ararat-Armenia

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LSparta Praha H1–4
  2. MD2LJagiellonia A1–3
  3. MD3AZ Alkmaar H22 October
  4. MD4Torreense A5 November
  5. MD5Salzburg A26 November
  6. MD6N.E.C. Nijmegen H this match10 December
  7. MD7Celje H21 January
  8. MD8Milan A28 January

N.E.C. Nijmegen

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LJuventus A0–5
  2. MD2DLevski Sofia H1–1
  3. MD3GNK Dinamo A22 October
  4. MD4Omonia H5 November
  5. MD5Rennes H26 November
  6. MD6Ararat-Armenia A this match10 December
  7. MD7Benfica H21 January
  8. MD8Celje A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Ararat-Armenia vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?

The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 23% chance of winning and N.E.C. Nijmegen 52%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Ararat-Armenia vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ararat-Armenia and 1.6 for N.E.C. Nijmegen, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Ararat-Armenia?

Ararat-Armenia's qualification chance is 6% right now. A win would make it 16%, a draw 4% and a defeat 2%.

What does this match mean for N.E.C. Nijmegen?

N.E.C. Nijmegen's qualification chance is 53% right now. A win would make it 68%, a draw 44% and a defeat 30%.

When is Ararat-Armenia vs N.E.C. Nijmegen played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →