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Celta vs Union SG: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Celta29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Union SG12th, 4 pts
39%Celta win
26%Draw
34%Union SG win

The model gives Celta a 39% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Union SG 34%. Celta's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 36%. Union SG's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 92%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeCelta: top 8Celta: throughUnion SG: top 8Union SG: through
Now2%54%33%96%
Celta win5%73%17%92%
Draw1%49%28%97%
Union SG win<1%36%54%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.2Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
29%Celta clean sheet
26%Union SG clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Celta

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LOmonia A0–1
  2. MD2LJuventus H1–2
  3. MD3Celtic A22 October
  4. MD4Union SG H this match5 November
  5. MD5Bournemouth H26 November
  6. MD6Marseille A10 December
  7. MD7Hapoel Beer-Sheva A21 January
  8. MD8Lillestrøm H28 January

Union SG

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WViktoria Plzeň A3–0
  2. MD2DReal Sociedad H1–1
  3. MD3Hapoel Beer-Sheva H22 October
  4. MD4Celta A this match5 November
  5. MD5Lech Poznań H26 November
  6. MD6Lyon A10 December
  7. MD7Beşiktaş A21 January
  8. MD8Celtic H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

The model gives Celta a 39% chance of winning and Union SG 34%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Celta and 1.2 for Union SG, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Celta?

Celta's qualification chance is 54% right now. A win would make it 73%, a draw 49% and a defeat 36%.

What does this match mean for Union SG?

Union SG's qualification chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 92%.

When is Celta vs Union SG played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →