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AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

AZ Alkmaar20th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Juventus1st, 6 pts
25%AZ Alkmaar win
25%Draw
50%Juventus win

The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 25% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Juventus 50%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 79%. Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 77%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAZ Alkmaar: top 8AZ Alkmaar: throughJuventus: top 8Juventus: through
Now13%86%89%100%
AZ Alkmaar win30%96%77%>99%
Draw11%87%86%>99%
Juventus win6%79%96%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.6Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
20%AZ Alkmaar clean sheet
35%Juventus clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

AZ Alkmaar

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1LSunderland A0–1
  2. MD2WHapoel Beer-Sheva H2–1
  3. MD3Ararat-Armenia A22 October
  4. MD4Juventus H this match5 November
  5. MD5Sparta Praha A26 November
  6. MD6Sturm Graz H10 December
  7. MD7GNK Dinamo H21 January
  8. MD8Benfica A28 January

Juventus

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +6

  1. MD1WN.E.C. Nijmegen H5–0
  2. MD2WCelta A2–1
  3. MD3Rennes H22 October
  4. MD4AZ Alkmaar A this match5 November
  5. MD5Omonia H26 November
  6. MD6Hapoel Beer-Sheva A10 December
  7. MD7Ferencváros A21 January
  8. MD8Real Sociedad H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?

The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 25% chance of winning and Juventus 50%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.6 for Juventus, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for AZ Alkmaar?

AZ Alkmaar's qualification chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 87% and a defeat 79%.

What does this match mean for Juventus?

Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 86% and a defeat 77%.

When is AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →