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Real Sociedad vs Lyon: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Real Sociedad22nd, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
Lyon8th, 6 pts
38%Real Sociedad win
26%Draw
36%Lyon win

The model gives Real Sociedad a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lyon 36%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 55%. Lyon's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeReal Sociedad: top 8Real Sociedad: throughLyon: top 8Lyon: through
Now5%72%59%99%
Real Sociedad win11%89%42%98%
Draw3%70%55%99%
Lyon win1%55%79%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
28%Real Sociedad clean sheet
27%Lyon clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Real Sociedad

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LBournemouth H1–2
  2. MD2DUnion SG A1–1
  3. MD3Lillestrøm A22 October
  4. MD4Lyon H this match5 November
  5. MD5Crystal Palace A26 November
  6. MD6Torreense H10 December
  7. MD7Viktoria Plzeň H21 January
  8. MD8Juventus A28 January

Lyon

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WAnderlecht A2–1
  2. MD2WCrystal Palace H3–2
  3. MD3Hoffenheim A22 October
  4. MD4Real Sociedad A this match5 November
  5. MD5Lillestrøm H26 November
  6. MD6Union SG H10 December
  7. MD7Jagiellonia A21 January
  8. MD8Leverkusen H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

The model gives Real Sociedad a 38% chance of winning and Lyon 36%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Real Sociedad and 1.3 for Lyon, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Real Sociedad?

Real Sociedad's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 89%, a draw 70% and a defeat 55%.

What does this match mean for Lyon?

Lyon's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

When is Real Sociedad vs Lyon played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →