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Benfica vs Lech Poznań: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Benfica3rd, 6 pts
–Matchday 4
Lech Poznań36th, 0 pts
76%Benfica win
16%Draw
9%Lech Poznań win

The model gives Benfica a 76% chance of winning, a draw 16% and Lech Poznań 9%. Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 73%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 47%, a defeat to 15%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBenfica: top 8Benfica: throughLech Poznań: top 8Lech Poznań: through
Now91%100%<1%19%
Benfica win94%100%<1%15%
Draw83%>99%<1%23%
Lech Poznań win73%>99%1%47%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.4 – 0.7Expected goals
45%Both teams score
60%3 or more goals
50%Benfica clean sheet
9%Lech Poznań clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–011%
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Benfica

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WMilan A2–0
  2. MD2WCeltic H4–1
  3. MD3Omonia A22 October
  4. MD4Lech Poznań H this match5 November
  5. MD5Viktoria Plzeň A26 November
  6. MD6OFI Crete H10 December
  7. MD7N.E.C. Nijmegen A21 January
  8. MD8AZ Alkmaar H28 January

Lech Poznań

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -8

  1. MD1LCrystal Palace A0–4
  2. MD2LLeverkusen H0–4
  3. MD3Sunderland H22 October
  4. MD4Benfica A this match5 November
  5. MD5Union SG A26 November
  6. MD6Ferencváros H10 December
  7. MD7Torreense H21 January
  8. MD8OFI Crete A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Benfica vs Lech Poznań?

The model gives Benfica a 76% chance of winning and Lech Poznań 9%, with a draw at 16%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Benfica vs Lech Poznań?

The model gives both teams scoring a 45% chance. Expected goals are 2.4 for Benfica and 0.7 for Lech Poznań, and the match has 3 or more goals in 60% of cases.

What does this match mean for Benfica?

Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 83% and a defeat 73%.

What does this match mean for Lech Poznań?

Lech Poznań's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 47%, a draw 23% and a defeat 15%.

When is Benfica vs Lech Poznań played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →