Knockout Math
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N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Omonia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

N.E.C. Nijmegen36th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Omonia15th, 3 pts
54%N.E.C. Nijmegen win
24%Draw
22%Omonia win

The model gives N.E.C. Nijmegen a 54% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Omonia 22%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 76%, a defeat to 40%. Omonia's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 34%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

N.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: throughOmonia: top 8Omonia: through
Now9%63%4%46%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win14%76%1%34%
Draw4%53%3%47%
Omonia win2%40%9%73%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

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