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N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Omonia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

N.E.C. Nijmegen27th, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
Omonia6th, 6 pts
49%N.E.C. Nijmegen win
25%Draw
26%Omonia win

The model gives N.E.C. Nijmegen a 49% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Omonia 26%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 53% now: a win would take it to 70%, a defeat to 32%. Omonia's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 71%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeN.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: throughOmonia: top 8Omonia: through
Now2%53%9%82%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win4%70%3%71%
Draw1%44%7%84%
Omonia win<1%32%20%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
34%N.E.C. Nijmegen clean sheet
21%Omonia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

N.E.C. Nijmegen

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LJuventus A0–5
  2. MD2DLevski Sofia H1–1
  3. MD3GNK Dinamo A22 October
  4. MD4Omonia H this match5 November
  5. MD5Rennes H26 November
  6. MD6Ararat-Armenia A10 December
  7. MD7Benfica H21 January
  8. MD8Celje A28 January

Omonia

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WCelta H1–0
  2. MD2WCelje A3–0
  3. MD3Benfica H22 October
  4. MD4N.E.C. Nijmegen A this match5 November
  5. MD5Juventus A26 November
  6. MD6Celtic H10 December
  7. MD7Rennes A21 January
  8. MD8Beşiktaş H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Omonia?

The model gives N.E.C. Nijmegen a 49% chance of winning and Omonia 26%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Omonia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for N.E.C. Nijmegen and 1.1 for Omonia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for N.E.C. Nijmegen?

N.E.C. Nijmegen's qualification chance is 53% right now. A win would make it 70%, a draw 44% and a defeat 32%.

What does this match mean for Omonia?

Omonia's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 84% and a defeat 71%.

When is N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Omonia played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →