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Ararat-Armenia vs Celje: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Ararat-Armenia33rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Celje31st, 0 pts
33%Ararat-Armenia win
26%Draw
41%Celje win

The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Celje 41%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 10% now: a win would take it to 21%, a defeat to 4%. Celje's chance of going through is 40% now: a win would take it to 57%, a defeat to 23%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Ararat-Armenia: top 8Ararat-Armenia: throughCelje: top 8Celje: through
Now<1%10%3%40%
Ararat-Armenia win<1%21%1%23%
Draw<1%8%1%34%
Celje win<1%4%6%57%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

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