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Ararat-Armenia vs Celje: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Ararat-Armenia34th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Celje35th, 0 pts
34%Ararat-Armenia win
26%Draw
40%Celje win

The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 34% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Celje 40%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 6% now: a win would take it to 13%, a defeat to 2%. Celje's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 33%, a defeat to 7%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeArarat-Armenia: top 8Ararat-Armenia: throughCelje: top 8Celje: through
Now<1%6%<1%19%
Ararat-Armenia win<1%13%0%7%
Draw<1%4%<1%13%
Celje win0%2%1%33%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
26%Ararat-Armenia clean sheet
29%Celje clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Ararat-Armenia

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LSparta Praha H1–4
  2. MD2LJagiellonia A1–3
  3. MD3AZ Alkmaar H22 October
  4. MD4Torreense A5 November
  5. MD5Salzburg A26 November
  6. MD6N.E.C. Nijmegen H10 December
  7. MD7Celje H this match21 January
  8. MD8Milan A28 January

Celje

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LLeverkusen A0–2
  2. MD2LOmonia H0–3
  3. MD3Salzburg H22 October
  4. MD4Sturm Graz A5 November
  5. MD5Ferencváros A26 November
  6. MD6Olympiacos H10 December
  7. MD7Ararat-Armenia A this match21 January
  8. MD8N.E.C. Nijmegen H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Ararat-Armenia vs Celje?

The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 34% chance of winning and Celje 40%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Ararat-Armenia vs Celje?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ararat-Armenia and 1.4 for Celje, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Ararat-Armenia?

Ararat-Armenia's qualification chance is 6% right now. A win would make it 13%, a draw 4% and a defeat 2%.

What does this match mean for Celje?

Celje's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 33%, a draw 13% and a defeat 7%.

When is Ararat-Armenia vs Celje played?

Thursday 21 January, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →