Knockout Math
Live
EN

Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Lillestrøm23rd, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
Viktoria Plzeň31st, 0 pts
32%Lillestrøm win
26%Draw
41%Viktoria Plzeň win

The model gives Lillestrøm a 32% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Viktoria Plzeň 41%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 18% now: a win would take it to 33%, a defeat to 7%. Viktoria Plzeň's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 52%, a defeat to 15%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLillestrøm: top 8Lillestrøm: throughViktoria Plzeň: top 8Viktoria Plzeň: through
Now<1%18%<1%33%
Lillestrøm win<1%33%<1%15%
Draw<1%15%<1%26%
Viktoria Plzeň win<1%7%1%52%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
25%Lillestrøm clean sheet
30%Viktoria Plzeň clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
2–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lillestrøm

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LTorreense H1–2
  2. MD2DSparta Praha A1–1
  3. MD3Real Sociedad H22 October
  4. MD4Viktoria Plzeň H this match5 November
  5. MD5Lyon A26 November
  6. MD6Levski Sofia A10 December
  7. MD7Bournemouth H21 January
  8. MD8Celta A28 January

Viktoria Plzeň

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LUnion SG H0–3
  2. MD2LFerencváros A1–2
  3. MD3Levski Sofia H22 October
  4. MD4Lillestrøm A this match5 November
  5. MD5Benfica H26 November
  6. MD6Bournemouth A10 December
  7. MD7Real Sociedad A21 January
  8. MD8Jagiellonia H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň?

The model gives Lillestrøm a 32% chance of winning and Viktoria Plzeň 41%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lillestrøm and 1.4 for Viktoria Plzeň, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lillestrøm?

Lillestrøm's qualification chance is 18% right now. A win would make it 33%, a draw 15% and a defeat 7%.

What does this match mean for Viktoria Plzeň?

Viktoria Plzeň's qualification chance is 33% right now. A win would make it 52%, a draw 26% and a defeat 15%.

When is Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →