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Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs OFI Crete: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Hapoel Beer-Sheva24th, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
OFI Crete18th, 3 pts
46%Hapoel Beer-Sheva win
26%Draw
28%OFI Crete win

The model gives Hapoel Beer-Sheva a 46% chance of winning, a draw 26% and OFI Crete 28%. Hapoel Beer-Sheva's chance of going through is 20% now: a win would take it to 32%, a defeat to 6%. OFI Crete's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 36%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeHapoel Beer-Sheva: top 8Hapoel Beer-Sheva: throughOFI Crete: top 8OFI Crete: through
Now<1%20%2%52%
Hapoel Beer-Sheva win<1%32%<1%36%
Draw<1%13%1%50%
OFI Crete win<1%6%4%78%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
33%Hapoel Beer-Sheva clean sheet
23%OFI Crete clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Hapoel Beer-Sheva

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1DGNK Dinamo H0–0
  2. MD2LAZ Alkmaar A1–2
  3. MD3Union SG A22 October
  4. MD4OFI Crete H this match5 November
  5. MD5Beşiktaş A26 November
  6. MD6Juventus H10 December
  7. MD7Celta H21 January
  8. MD8Bournemouth A28 January

OFI Crete

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WHoffenheim H2–0
  2. MD2LRennes A1–2
  3. MD3Leverkusen H22 October
  4. MD4Hapoel Beer-Sheva A this match5 November
  5. MD5Anderlecht H26 November
  6. MD6Benfica A10 December
  7. MD7Sturm Graz A21 January
  8. MD8Lech Poznań H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs OFI Crete?

The model gives Hapoel Beer-Sheva a 46% chance of winning and OFI Crete 28%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs OFI Crete?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hapoel Beer-Sheva and 1.1 for OFI Crete, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

Hapoel Beer-Sheva's qualification chance is 20% right now. A win would make it 32%, a draw 13% and a defeat 6%.

What does this match mean for OFI Crete?

OFI Crete's qualification chance is 52% right now. A win would make it 78%, a draw 50% and a defeat 36%.

When is Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs OFI Crete played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →