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Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Levski Sofia25th, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
Jagiellonia17th, 3 pts
38%Levski Sofia win
26%Draw
35%Jagiellonia win

The model gives Levski Sofia a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Jagiellonia 35%. Levski Sofia's chance of going through is 24% now: a win would take it to 42%, a defeat to 10%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 41%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLevski Sofia: top 8Levski Sofia: throughJagiellonia: top 8Jagiellonia: through
Now<1%24%4%59%
Levski Sofia win1%42%1%41%
Draw<1%18%2%57%
Jagiellonia win0%10%7%81%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
28%Levski Sofia clean sheet
27%Jagiellonia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Levski Sofia

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LSalzburg H0–1
  2. MD2DN.E.C. Nijmegen A1–1
  3. MD3Viktoria Plzeň A22 October
  4. MD4Jagiellonia H this match5 November
  5. MD5Marseille A26 November
  6. MD6Lillestrøm H10 December
  7. MD7Milan H21 January
  8. MD8Sunderland A28 January

Jagiellonia

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1LOlympiacos A1–2
  2. MD2WArarat-Armenia H3–1
  3. MD3Anderlecht H22 October
  4. MD4Levski Sofia A this match5 November
  5. MD5Sunderland A26 November
  6. MD6Crystal Palace H10 December
  7. MD7Lyon H21 January
  8. MD8Viktoria Plzeň A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?

The model gives Levski Sofia a 38% chance of winning and Jagiellonia 35%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Levski Sofia and 1.3 for Jagiellonia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Levski Sofia?

Levski Sofia's qualification chance is 24% right now. A win would make it 42%, a draw 18% and a defeat 10%.

What does this match mean for Jagiellonia?

Jagiellonia's qualification chance is 59% right now. A win would make it 81%, a draw 57% and a defeat 41%.

When is Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →