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Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Crystal Palace15th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Hoffenheim30th, 0 pts
51%Crystal Palace win
25%Draw
24%Hoffenheim win

The model gives Crystal Palace a 51% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Hoffenheim 24%. Crystal Palace's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 84%. Hoffenheim's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 35%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeCrystal Palace: top 8Crystal Palace: throughHoffenheim: top 8Hoffenheim: through
Now27%93%2%47%
Crystal Palace win39%98%<1%35%
Draw19%91%1%48%
Hoffenheim win11%84%5%73%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.0Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
36%Crystal Palace clean sheet
20%Hoffenheim clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Crystal Palace

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WLech Poznań H4–0
  2. MD2LLyon A2–3
  3. MD3Beşiktaş A22 October
  4. MD4Hoffenheim H this match5 November
  5. MD5Real Sociedad H26 November
  6. MD6Jagiellonia A10 December
  7. MD7Sparta Praha H21 January
  8. MD8Salzburg A28 January

Hoffenheim

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LOFI Crete A0–2
  2. MD2LBeşiktaş H2–3
  3. MD3Lyon H22 October
  4. MD4Crystal Palace A this match5 November
  5. MD5Sturm Graz H26 November
  6. MD6Anderlecht A10 December
  7. MD7Olympiacos A21 January
  8. MD8Ferencváros H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim?

The model gives Crystal Palace a 51% chance of winning and Hoffenheim 24%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Crystal Palace and 1.0 for Hoffenheim, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Crystal Palace?

Crystal Palace's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 91% and a defeat 84%.

What does this match mean for Hoffenheim?

Hoffenheim's qualification chance is 47% right now. A win would make it 73%, a draw 48% and a defeat 35%.

When is Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →