Knockout Math
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Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Crystal Palace2nd, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Hoffenheim29th, 0 pts
47%Crystal Palace win
26%Draw
28%Hoffenheim win

The model gives Crystal Palace a 47% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Hoffenheim 28%. Crystal Palace's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 87%. Hoffenheim's chance of going through is 71% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 61%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Crystal Palace: top 8Crystal Palace: throughHoffenheim: top 8Hoffenheim: through
Now45%94%14%71%
Crystal Palace win60%98%7%61%
Draw37%92%11%72%
Hoffenheim win27%87%28%88%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%

Other matchday 4 fixtures