Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00
Jagiellonia beat Ararat-Armenia 3–1 at home on matchday 2. After the match, Jagiellonia are 17th with 3 points, with a 59% chance of going through (top 8: 4%). Ararat-Armenia are now 34th with 0 points, with a 6% chance of going through (top 8: <1%).
Before kick-off
What the model expected, based on team ratings before matchday 2.
The outcome the model rated most likely (59%). The model's most likely score was 1–0 (12%); the actual score had a 6% chance. Expected goals before the match: Jagiellonia 1.8, Ararat-Armenia 0.9.
Chances before and now
Before matchday 2 compared with now, after all results so far.
| Team | Position | Through (top 24) | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 21st → 17th | 41% → 59% | 3% → 4% |
| Ararat-Armenia | 33rd → 34th | 10% → 6% | <1% → <1% |
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Jagiellonia
- MD1LOlympiacos A1–2
- MD2WArarat-Armenia H this match3–1
- MD3Anderlecht H22 October
- MD4Levski Sofia A5 November
- MD5Sunderland A26 November
- MD6Crystal Palace H10 December
- MD7Lyon H21 January
- MD8Viktoria Plzeň A28 January
Ararat-Armenia
- MD1LSparta Praha H1–4
- MD2LJagiellonia A this match1–3
- MD3AZ Alkmaar H22 October
- MD4Torreense A5 November
- MD5Salzburg A26 November
- MD6N.E.C. Nijmegen H10 December
- MD7Celje H21 January
- MD8Milan A28 January
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?
The match finished 3–1 (Europa League, matchday 2).
Was Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia a surprise?
Before kick-off the model gave Jagiellonia a 59% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Ararat-Armenia 18%. The outcome the model rated most likely (59%). The model's most likely score was 1–0 (12%); the actual score had a 6% chance.
How did the result change Jagiellonia's chances?
Before matchday 2, Jagiellonia had a 41% chance of going through (top 8: 3%). Now it is 59% (top 8: 4%).
How did the result change Ararat-Armenia's chances?
Before matchday 2, Ararat-Armenia had a 10% chance of going through (top 8: <1%). Now it is 6% (top 8: <1%).
When was Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia played?
Thursday 15 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 2).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 2 fixtures
- Sparta Praha – Lillestrøm (1–1)
- AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Beer-Sheva (2–1)
- Salzburg – Milan (0–4)
- Lech Poznań – Leverkusen (0–4)
- Celje – Omonia (0–3)
- Lyon – Crystal Palace (3–2)
- Union SG – Real Sociedad (1–1)
- Torreense – Sunderland (1–2)
- Bournemouth – Sturm Graz (3–0)
- Ferencváros – Viktoria Plzeň (2–1)
- GNK Dinamo – Anderlecht (1–0)
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Levski Sofia (1–1)
- Marseille – Olympiacos (0–1)
- Celta – Juventus (1–2)
- Benfica – Celtic (4–1)
- Rennes – OFI Crete (2–1)
- Hoffenheim – Beşiktaş (2–3)