Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45
The model gives Sparta Praha a 32% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Bournemouth 42%. Sparta Praha's chance of going through is 80% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 69%. Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 52%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Sparta Praha: top 8 | Sparta Praha: through | Bournemouth: top 8 | Bournemouth: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 11% | 80% | 70% | >99% |
| Sparta Praha win | 23% | 94% | 52% | 99% |
| Draw | 8% | 81% | 67% | >99% |
| Bournemouth win | 4% | 69% | 86% | 100% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Sparta Praha
- MD1WArarat-Armenia A4–1
- MD2DLillestrøm H1–1
- MD3Olympiacos A22 October
- MD4Bournemouth H this match5 November
- MD5AZ Alkmaar H26 November
- MD6Salzburg A10 December
- MD7Crystal Palace A21 January
- MD8Rennes H28 January
Bournemouth
- MD1WReal Sociedad A2–1
- MD2WSturm Graz H3–0
- MD3Milan H22 October
- MD4Sparta Praha A this match5 November
- MD5Celta A26 November
- MD6Viktoria Plzeň H10 December
- MD7Lillestrøm A21 January
- MD8Hapoel Beer-Sheva H28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth?
The model gives Sparta Praha a 32% chance of winning and Bournemouth 42%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).
Will both teams score in Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sparta Praha and 1.4 for Bournemouth, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha's qualification chance is 80% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 81% and a defeat 69%.
What does this match mean for Bournemouth?
Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% right now. A win would make it 86%, a draw 67% and a defeat 52%.
When is Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth played?
Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 4).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Milan – Ferencváros
- Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim
- Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Omonia
- Levski Sofia – Jagiellonia
- Real Sociedad – Lyon
- Anderlecht – Salzburg
- Rennes – Olympiacos
- AZ Alkmaar – Juventus
- Leverkusen – Marseille
- Celtic – Beşiktaş
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – OFI Crete
- Celta – Union SG
- Torreense – Ararat-Armenia
- Sturm Graz – Celje
- Benfica – Lech Poznań
- Sunderland – GNK Dinamo