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Milan vs Sunderland: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Milan16th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Sunderland9th, 6 pts
62%Milan win
22%Draw
16%Sunderland win

The model gives Milan a 62% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Sunderland 16%. Milan's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeMilan: top 8Milan: throughSunderland: top 8Sunderland: through
Now55%99%55%99%
Milan win68%>99%45%98%
Draw40%98%63%99%
Sunderland win27%97%81%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.9 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
42%Milan clean sheet
15%Sunderland clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Milan

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1LBenfica H0–2
  2. MD2WSalzburg A4–0
  3. MD3Bournemouth A22 October
  4. MD4Ferencváros H5 November
  5. MD5Olympiacos A26 November
  6. MD6Sunderland H this match10 December
  7. MD7Levski Sofia A21 January
  8. MD8Ararat-Armenia H28 January

Sunderland

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WAZ Alkmaar H1–0
  2. MD2WTorreense A2–1
  3. MD3Lech Poznań A22 October
  4. MD4GNK Dinamo H5 November
  5. MD5Jagiellonia H26 November
  6. MD6Milan A this match10 December
  7. MD7Anderlecht A21 January
  8. MD8Levski Sofia H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Milan vs Sunderland?

The model gives Milan a 62% chance of winning and Sunderland 16%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Milan vs Sunderland?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Milan and 0.9 for Sunderland, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Milan?

Milan's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 97%.

What does this match mean for Sunderland?

Sunderland's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

When is Milan vs Sunderland played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →