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Anderlecht vs Sunderland: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00

Anderlecht28th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Sunderland9th, 6 pts
35%Anderlecht win
26%Draw
39%Sunderland win

The model gives Anderlecht a 35% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sunderland 39%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 58%, a defeat to 22%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAnderlecht: top 8Anderlecht: throughSunderland: top 8Sunderland: through
Now1%38%55%99%
Anderlecht win2%58%37%98%
Draw<1%34%50%99%
Sunderland win<1%22%75%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
26%Anderlecht clean sheet
29%Sunderland clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Anderlecht

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LLyon H1–2
  2. MD2LGNK Dinamo A0–1
  3. MD3Jagiellonia A22 October
  4. MD4Salzburg H5 November
  5. MD5OFI Crete A26 November
  6. MD6Hoffenheim H10 December
  7. MD7Sunderland H this match21 January
  8. MD8Marseille A28 January

Sunderland

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WAZ Alkmaar H1–0
  2. MD2WTorreense A2–1
  3. MD3Lech Poznań A22 October
  4. MD4GNK Dinamo H5 November
  5. MD5Jagiellonia H26 November
  6. MD6Milan A10 December
  7. MD7Anderlecht A this match21 January
  8. MD8Levski Sofia H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Anderlecht vs Sunderland?

The model gives Anderlecht a 35% chance of winning and Sunderland 39%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Sunderland?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Anderlecht and 1.3 for Sunderland, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Anderlecht?

Anderlecht's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 58%, a draw 34% and a defeat 22%.

What does this match mean for Sunderland?

Sunderland's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

When is Anderlecht vs Sunderland played?

Thursday 21 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →