Jagiellonia vs Lyon: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45
Jagiellonia21st, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Lyon10th, 3 pts
23%Jagiellonia win
25%Draw
52%Lyon win
The model gives Jagiellonia a 23% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Lyon 52%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 65%, a defeat to 30%. Lyon's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Jagiellonia: top 8 | Jagiellonia: through | Lyon: top 8 | Lyon: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 3% | 41% | 44% | 94% |
| Jagiellonia win | 8% | 65% | 24% | 86% |
| Draw | 3% | 41% | 35% | 92% |
| Lyon win | 1% | 30% | 58% | 98% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%
Other matchday 7 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Union SG
- Ararat-Armenia – Celje
- Ferencváros – Juventus
- Lillestrøm – Bournemouth
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Benfica
- Olympiacos – Hoffenheim
- Real Sociedad – Viktoria Plzeň
- Sturm Graz – OFI Crete
- AZ Alkmaar – GNK Dinamo
- Leverkusen – Salzburg
- Celtic – Marseille
- Crystal Palace – Sparta Praha
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – Celta
- Lech Poznań – Torreense
- Levski Sofia – Milan
- Anderlecht – Sunderland
- Rennes – Omonia