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Jagiellonia vs Lyon: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Jagiellonia17th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Lyon8th, 6 pts
22%Jagiellonia win
24%Draw
54%Lyon win

The model gives Jagiellonia a 22% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Lyon 54%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 48%. Lyon's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 97%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeJagiellonia: top 8Jagiellonia: throughLyon: top 8Lyon: through
Now4%59%59%99%
Jagiellonia win10%84%35%97%
Draw3%62%49%99%
Lyon win1%48%73%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.7Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
19%Jagiellonia clean sheet
37%Lyon clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–112%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Jagiellonia

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1LOlympiacos A1–2
  2. MD2WArarat-Armenia H3–1
  3. MD3Anderlecht H22 October
  4. MD4Levski Sofia A5 November
  5. MD5Sunderland A26 November
  6. MD6Crystal Palace H10 December
  7. MD7Lyon H this match21 January
  8. MD8Viktoria Plzeň A28 January

Lyon

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WAnderlecht A2–1
  2. MD2WCrystal Palace H3–2
  3. MD3Hoffenheim A22 October
  4. MD4Real Sociedad A5 November
  5. MD5Lillestrøm H26 November
  6. MD6Union SG H10 December
  7. MD7Jagiellonia A this match21 January
  8. MD8Leverkusen H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Jagiellonia vs Lyon?

The model gives Jagiellonia a 22% chance of winning and Lyon 54%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Lyon?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Jagiellonia and 1.7 for Lyon, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Jagiellonia?

Jagiellonia's qualification chance is 59% right now. A win would make it 84%, a draw 62% and a defeat 48%.

What does this match mean for Lyon?

Lyon's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 99% and a defeat 97%.

When is Jagiellonia vs Lyon played?

Thursday 21 January, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →