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Jagiellonia vs Crystal Palace: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Jagiellonia17th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Crystal Palace15th, 3 pts
24%Jagiellonia win
25%Draw
52%Crystal Palace win

The model gives Jagiellonia a 24% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Crystal Palace 52%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 48%. Crystal Palace's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 83%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeJagiellonia: top 8Jagiellonia: throughCrystal Palace: top 8Crystal Palace: through
Now4%59%27%93%
Jagiellonia win10%84%10%83%
Draw3%61%18%91%
Crystal Palace win1%48%39%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.6Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
19%Jagiellonia clean sheet
36%Crystal Palace clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Jagiellonia

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1LOlympiacos A1–2
  2. MD2WArarat-Armenia H3–1
  3. MD3Anderlecht H22 October
  4. MD4Levski Sofia A5 November
  5. MD5Sunderland A26 November
  6. MD6Crystal Palace H this match10 December
  7. MD7Lyon H21 January
  8. MD8Viktoria Plzeň A28 January

Crystal Palace

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WLech Poznań H4–0
  2. MD2LLyon A2–3
  3. MD3Beşiktaş A22 October
  4. MD4Hoffenheim H5 November
  5. MD5Real Sociedad H26 November
  6. MD6Jagiellonia A this match10 December
  7. MD7Sparta Praha H21 January
  8. MD8Salzburg A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Jagiellonia vs Crystal Palace?

The model gives Jagiellonia a 24% chance of winning and Crystal Palace 52%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Crystal Palace?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Jagiellonia and 1.6 for Crystal Palace, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Jagiellonia?

Jagiellonia's qualification chance is 59% right now. A win would make it 84%, a draw 61% and a defeat 48%.

What does this match mean for Crystal Palace?

Crystal Palace's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 91% and a defeat 83%.

When is Jagiellonia vs Crystal Palace played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →