Knockout Math
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Salzburg vs Sparta Praha: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Salzburg14th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Sparta Praha3rd, 3 pts
47%Salzburg win
26%Draw
28%Sparta Praha win

The model gives Salzburg a 47% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sparta Praha 28%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 77%. Sparta Praha's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 75%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Salzburg: top 8Salzburg: throughSparta Praha: top 8Sparta Praha: through
Now29%88%23%83%
Salzburg win43%96%13%75%
Draw21%86%21%85%
Sparta Praha win13%77%42%96%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%

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