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Salzburg vs Sparta Praha: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Salzburg21st, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Sparta Praha11th, 4 pts
44%Salzburg win
26%Draw
30%Sparta Praha win

The model gives Salzburg a 44% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sparta Praha 30%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 84% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 70%. Sparta Praha's chance of going through is 80% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 69%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSalzburg: top 8Salzburg: throughSparta Praha: top 8Sparta Praha: through
Now12%84%11%80%
Salzburg win20%95%4%69%
Draw7%80%9%82%
Sparta Praha win3%70%23%95%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
32%Salzburg clean sheet
23%Sparta Praha clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Salzburg

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1WLevski Sofia A1–0
  2. MD2LMilan H0–4
  3. MD3Celje A22 October
  4. MD4Anderlecht A5 November
  5. MD5Ararat-Armenia H26 November
  6. MD6Sparta Praha H this match10 December
  7. MD7Leverkusen A21 January
  8. MD8Crystal Palace H28 January

Sparta Praha

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WArarat-Armenia A4–1
  2. MD2DLillestrøm H1–1
  3. MD3Olympiacos A22 October
  4. MD4Bournemouth H5 November
  5. MD5AZ Alkmaar H26 November
  6. MD6Salzburg A this match10 December
  7. MD7Crystal Palace A21 January
  8. MD8Rennes H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in RB Salzburg vs Sparta Prague?

The model gives Salzburg a 44% chance of winning and Sparta Praha 30%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in RB Salzburg vs Sparta Prague?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Salzburg and 1.2 for Sparta Praha, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Salzburg?

Salzburg's qualification chance is 84% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 80% and a defeat 70%.

What does this match mean for Sparta Praha?

Sparta Praha's qualification chance is 80% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 82% and a defeat 69%.

When is Salzburg vs Sparta Praha played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →