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Leverkusen vs Salzburg: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00

Leverkusen2nd, 6 pts
–Matchday 7
Salzburg21st, 3 pts
67%Leverkusen win
20%Draw
13%Salzburg win

The model gives Leverkusen a 67% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Salzburg 13%. Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 62%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 84% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 80%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLeverkusen: top 8Leverkusen: throughSalzburg: top 8Salzburg: through
Now83%>99%12%84%
Leverkusen win90%100%7%80%
Draw75%>99%13%88%
Salzburg win62%99%33%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.1 – 0.8Expected goals
48%Both teams score
55%3 or more goals
45%Leverkusen clean sheet
12%Salzburg clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Leverkusen

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +6

  1. MD1WCelje H2–0
  2. MD2WLech Poznań A4–0
  3. MD3OFI Crete A22 October
  4. MD4Marseille H5 November
  5. MD5GNK Dinamo A26 November
  6. MD6Beşiktaş H10 December
  7. MD7Salzburg H this match21 January
  8. MD8Lyon A28 January

Salzburg

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1WLevski Sofia A1–0
  2. MD2LMilan H0–4
  3. MD3Celje A22 October
  4. MD4Anderlecht A5 November
  5. MD5Ararat-Armenia H26 November
  6. MD6Sparta Praha H10 December
  7. MD7Leverkusen A this match21 January
  8. MD8Crystal Palace H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Salzburg?

The model gives Leverkusen a 67% chance of winning and Salzburg 13%, with a draw at 20%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Salzburg?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 2.1 for Leverkusen and 0.8 for Salzburg, and the match has 3 or more goals in 55% of cases.

What does this match mean for Leverkusen?

Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% right now. A win would make it 90%, a draw 75% and a defeat 62%.

What does this match mean for Salzburg?

Salzburg's qualification chance is 84% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 88% and a defeat 80%.

When is Leverkusen vs Salzburg played?

Thursday 21 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →