Leverkusen vs Salzburg: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00
Leverkusen8th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Salzburg14th, 3 pts
64%Leverkusen win
21%Draw
15%Salzburg win
The model gives Leverkusen a 64% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Salzburg 15%. Leverkusen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Leverkusen: top 8 | Leverkusen: through | Salzburg: top 8 | Salzburg: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 75% | 99% | 29% | 88% |
| Leverkusen win | 84% | >99% | 22% | 85% |
| Draw | 65% | 98% | 32% | 92% |
| Salzburg win | 51% | 97% | 56% | 98% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
Other matchday 7 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Union SG
- Ararat-Armenia – Celje
- Ferencváros – Juventus
- Jagiellonia – Lyon
- Lillestrøm – Bournemouth
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Benfica
- Olympiacos – Hoffenheim
- Real Sociedad – Viktoria Plzeň
- Sturm Graz – OFI Crete
- AZ Alkmaar – GNK Dinamo
- Celtic – Marseille
- Crystal Palace – Sparta Praha
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – Celta
- Lech Poznań – Torreense
- Levski Sofia – Milan
- Anderlecht – Sunderland
- Rennes – Omonia