Knockout Math
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Sturm Graz vs OFI Crete: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Sturm Graz20th, 1 pts
–Matchday 7
OFI Crete9th, 3 pts
54%Sturm Graz win
24%Draw
22%OFI Crete win

The model gives Sturm Graz a 54% chance of winning, a draw 24% and OFI Crete 22%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 66%, a defeat to 28%. OFI Crete's chance of going through is 49% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 37%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Sturm Graz: top 8Sturm Graz: throughOFI Crete: top 8OFI Crete: through
Now5%52%4%49%
Sturm Graz win8%66%2%37%
Draw2%41%3%52%
OFI Crete win1%28%10%77%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

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