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Sturm Graz vs OFI Crete: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Sturm Graz26th, 1 pt
–Matchday 7
OFI Crete18th, 3 pts
51%Sturm Graz win
25%Draw
24%OFI Crete win

The model gives Sturm Graz a 51% chance of winning, a draw 25% and OFI Crete 24%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 62%, a defeat to 24%. OFI Crete's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 38%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSturm Graz: top 8Sturm Graz: throughOFI Crete: top 8OFI Crete: through
Now1%46%2%52%
Sturm Graz win2%62%<1%38%
Draw<1%36%1%54%
OFI Crete win<1%24%5%80%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.0Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
36%Sturm Graz clean sheet
20%OFI Crete clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Sturm Graz

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1DRennes H0–0
  2. MD2LBournemouth A0–3
  3. MD3Marseille H22 October
  4. MD4Celje H5 November
  5. MD5Hoffenheim A26 November
  6. MD6AZ Alkmaar A10 December
  7. MD7OFI Crete H this match21 January
  8. MD8GNK Dinamo A28 January

OFI Crete

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WHoffenheim H2–0
  2. MD2LRennes A1–2
  3. MD3Leverkusen H22 October
  4. MD4Hapoel Beer-Sheva A5 November
  5. MD5Anderlecht H26 November
  6. MD6Benfica A10 December
  7. MD7Sturm Graz A this match21 January
  8. MD8Lech Poznań H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Sturm Graz vs OFI Crete?

The model gives Sturm Graz a 51% chance of winning and OFI Crete 24%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs OFI Crete?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sturm Graz and 1.0 for OFI Crete, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Sturm Graz?

Sturm Graz's qualification chance is 46% right now. A win would make it 62%, a draw 36% and a defeat 24%.

What does this match mean for OFI Crete?

OFI Crete's qualification chance is 52% right now. A win would make it 80%, a draw 54% and a defeat 38%.

When is Sturm Graz vs OFI Crete played?

Thursday 21 January, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →