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Benfica vs OFI Crete: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Benfica3rd, 6 pts
–Matchday 6
OFI Crete18th, 3 pts
78%Benfica win
14%Draw
8%OFI Crete win

The model gives Benfica a 78% chance of winning, a draw 14% and OFI Crete 8%. Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 71%. OFI Crete's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 47%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBenfica: top 8Benfica: throughOFI Crete: top 8OFI Crete: through
Now91%100%2%52%
Benfica win94%100%1%47%
Draw82%>99%3%61%
OFI Crete win71%>99%9%84%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.5 – 0.7Expected goals
44%Both teams score
62%3 or more goals
52%Benfica clean sheet
8%OFI Crete clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–011%
1–010%
2–19%
3–17%
4–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Benfica

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WMilan A2–0
  2. MD2WCeltic H4–1
  3. MD3Omonia A22 October
  4. MD4Lech Poznań H5 November
  5. MD5Viktoria Plzeň A26 November
  6. MD6OFI Crete H this match10 December
  7. MD7N.E.C. Nijmegen A21 January
  8. MD8AZ Alkmaar H28 January

OFI Crete

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WHoffenheim H2–0
  2. MD2LRennes A1–2
  3. MD3Leverkusen H22 October
  4. MD4Hapoel Beer-Sheva A5 November
  5. MD5Anderlecht H26 November
  6. MD6Benfica A this match10 December
  7. MD7Sturm Graz A21 January
  8. MD8Lech Poznań H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Benfica vs OFI Crete?

The model gives Benfica a 78% chance of winning and OFI Crete 8%, with a draw at 14%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 3–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Benfica vs OFI Crete?

The model gives both teams scoring a 44% chance. Expected goals are 2.5 for Benfica and 0.7 for OFI Crete, and the match has 3 or more goals in 62% of cases.

What does this match mean for Benfica?

Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 82% and a defeat 71%.

What does this match mean for OFI Crete?

OFI Crete's qualification chance is 52% right now. A win would make it 84%, a draw 61% and a defeat 47%.

When is Benfica vs OFI Crete played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →