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Lech Poznań vs Ferencváros: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Lech Poznań36th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Ferencváros7th, 6 pts
33%Lech Poznań win
26%Draw
41%Ferencváros win

The model gives Lech Poznań a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Ferencváros 41%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 36%, a defeat to 9%. Ferencváros's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 93%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLech Poznań: top 8Lech Poznań: throughFerencváros: top 8Ferencváros: through
Now<1%19%34%97%
Lech Poznań win1%36%17%93%
Draw<1%14%27%97%
Ferencváros win0%9%52%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
25%Lech Poznań clean sheet
30%Ferencváros clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lech Poznań

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -8

  1. MD1LCrystal Palace A0–4
  2. MD2LLeverkusen H0–4
  3. MD3Sunderland H22 October
  4. MD4Benfica A5 November
  5. MD5Union SG A26 November
  6. MD6Ferencváros H this match10 December
  7. MD7Torreense H21 January
  8. MD8OFI Crete A28 January

Ferencváros

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WCeltic A3–1
  2. MD2WViktoria Plzeň H2–1
  3. MD3Torreense H22 October
  4. MD4Milan A5 November
  5. MD5Celje H26 November
  6. MD6Lech Poznań A this match10 December
  7. MD7Juventus H21 January
  8. MD8Hoffenheim A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lech Poznań vs Ferencváros?

The model gives Lech Poznań a 33% chance of winning and Ferencváros 41%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Lech Poznań vs Ferencváros?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lech Poznań and 1.4 for Ferencváros, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lech Poznań?

Lech Poznań's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 36%, a draw 14% and a defeat 9%.

What does this match mean for Ferencváros?

Ferencváros's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 93%.

When is Lech Poznań vs Ferencváros played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →