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Lech Poznań vs Leverkusen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45

Lech Poznań35th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Leverkusen8th, 3 pts
17%Lech Poznań win
22%Draw
61%Leverkusen win

The model gives Lech Poznań a 17% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Leverkusen 61%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 58%, a defeat to 24%. Leverkusen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Lech Poznań: top 8Lech Poznań: throughLeverkusen: top 8Leverkusen: through
Now2%33%75%99%
Lech Poznań win6%58%54%97%
Draw2%36%65%99%
Leverkusen win1%24%84%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%

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