Crystal Palace vs Sparta Praha: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00
The model gives Crystal Palace a 54% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Sparta Praha 22%. Crystal Palace's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 82%. Sparta Praha's chance of going through is 80% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 72%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Crystal Palace: top 8 | Crystal Palace: through | Sparta Praha: top 8 | Sparta Praha: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 27% | 93% | 11% | 80% |
| Crystal Palace win | 38% | 98% | 6% | 72% |
| Draw | 17% | 90% | 10% | 84% |
| Sparta Praha win | 10% | 82% | 25% | 96% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Crystal Palace
- MD1WLech Poznań H4–0
- MD2LLyon A2–3
- MD3Beşiktaş A22 October
- MD4Hoffenheim H5 November
- MD5Real Sociedad H26 November
- MD6Jagiellonia A10 December
- MD7Sparta Praha H this match21 January
- MD8Salzburg A28 January
Sparta Praha
- MD1WArarat-Armenia A4–1
- MD2DLillestrøm H1–1
- MD3Olympiacos A22 October
- MD4Bournemouth H5 November
- MD5AZ Alkmaar H26 November
- MD6Salzburg A10 December
- MD7Crystal Palace A this match21 January
- MD8Rennes H28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Crystal Palace vs Sparta Prague?
The model gives Crystal Palace a 54% chance of winning and Sparta Praha 22%, with a draw at 24%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Sparta Prague?
The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Crystal Palace and 1.0 for Sparta Praha, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.
What does this match mean for Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 90% and a defeat 82%.
What does this match mean for Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha's qualification chance is 80% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 84% and a defeat 72%.
When is Crystal Palace vs Sparta Praha played?
Thursday 21 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 7).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 7 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Union SG
- Ararat-Armenia – Celje
- Ferencváros – Juventus
- Jagiellonia – Lyon
- Lillestrøm – Bournemouth
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Benfica
- Olympiacos – Hoffenheim
- Real Sociedad – Viktoria Plzeň
- Sturm Graz – OFI Crete
- AZ Alkmaar – GNK Dinamo
- Leverkusen – Salzburg
- Celtic – Marseille
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – Celta
- Lech Poznań – Torreense
- Levski Sofia – Milan
- Anderlecht – Sunderland
- Rennes – Omonia