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AZ Alkmaar vs GNK Dinamo: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00

AZ Alkmaar20th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
GNK Dinamo14th, 4 pts
53%AZ Alkmaar win
24%Draw
23%GNK Dinamo win

The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and GNK Dinamo 23%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 69%. GNK Dinamo's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 67%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAZ Alkmaar: top 8AZ Alkmaar: throughGNK Dinamo: top 8GNK Dinamo: through
Now13%86%8%76%
AZ Alkmaar win20%95%4%67%
Draw7%82%7%79%
GNK Dinamo win3%69%19%94%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
37%AZ Alkmaar clean sheet
19%GNK Dinamo clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

AZ Alkmaar

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1LSunderland A0–1
  2. MD2WHapoel Beer-Sheva H2–1
  3. MD3Ararat-Armenia A22 October
  4. MD4Juventus H5 November
  5. MD5Sparta Praha A26 November
  6. MD6Sturm Graz H10 December
  7. MD7GNK Dinamo H this match21 January
  8. MD8Benfica A28 January

GNK Dinamo

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DHapoel Beer-Sheva A0–0
  2. MD2WAnderlecht H1–0
  3. MD3N.E.C. Nijmegen H22 October
  4. MD4Sunderland A5 November
  5. MD5Leverkusen H26 November
  6. MD6Rennes A10 December
  7. MD7AZ Alkmaar A this match21 January
  8. MD8Sturm Graz H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in AZ Alkmaar vs Dinamo Zagreb?

The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 53% chance of winning and GNK Dinamo 23%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Dinamo Zagreb?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.0 for GNK Dinamo, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for AZ Alkmaar?

AZ Alkmaar's qualification chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 82% and a defeat 69%.

What does this match mean for GNK Dinamo?

GNK Dinamo's qualification chance is 76% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 79% and a defeat 67%.

When is AZ Alkmaar vs GNK Dinamo played?

Thursday 21 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →