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Ferencváros vs Juventus: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Ferencváros7th, 6 pts
–Matchday 7
Juventus1st, 6 pts
21%Ferencváros win
24%Draw
55%Juventus win

The model gives Ferencváros a 21% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Juventus 55%. Ferencváros's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 95%. Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 76%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeFerencváros: top 8Ferencváros: throughJuventus: top 8Juventus: through
Now34%97%89%100%
Ferencváros win63%>99%76%>99%
Draw36%98%85%100%
Juventus win23%95%96%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.7Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
18%Ferencváros clean sheet
38%Juventus clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Ferencváros

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WCeltic A3–1
  2. MD2WViktoria Plzeň H2–1
  3. MD3Torreense H22 October
  4. MD4Milan A5 November
  5. MD5Celje H26 November
  6. MD6Lech Poznań A10 December
  7. MD7Juventus H this match21 January
  8. MD8Hoffenheim A28 January

Juventus

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +6

  1. MD1WN.E.C. Nijmegen H5–0
  2. MD2WCelta A2–1
  3. MD3Rennes H22 October
  4. MD4AZ Alkmaar A5 November
  5. MD5Omonia H26 November
  6. MD6Hapoel Beer-Sheva A10 December
  7. MD7Ferencváros A this match21 January
  8. MD8Real Sociedad H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Ferencváros vs Juventus?

The model gives Ferencváros a 21% chance of winning and Juventus 55%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Ferencváros vs Juventus?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ferencváros and 1.7 for Juventus, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Ferencváros?

Ferencváros's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 95%.

What does this match mean for Juventus?

Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 85% and a defeat 76%.

When is Ferencváros vs Juventus played?

Thursday 21 January, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →