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Levski Sofia vs Milan: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00

Levski Sofia25th, 1 pt
–Matchday 7
Milan16th, 3 pts
13%Levski Sofia win
19%Draw
68%Milan win

The model gives Levski Sofia a 13% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Milan 68%. Levski Sofia's chance of going through is 24% now: a win would take it to 54%, a defeat to 17%. Milan's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 0–2 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLevski Sofia: top 8Levski Sofia: throughMilan: top 8Milan: through
Now<1%24%55%99%
Levski Sofia win2%54%26%96%
Draw<1%30%39%98%
Milan win<1%17%65%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.8 – 2.1Expected goals
48%Both teams score
56%3 or more goals
12%Levski Sofia clean sheet
46%Milan clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–19%
0–39%
1–37%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Levski Sofia

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LSalzburg H0–1
  2. MD2DN.E.C. Nijmegen A1–1
  3. MD3Viktoria Plzeň A22 October
  4. MD4Jagiellonia H5 November
  5. MD5Marseille A26 November
  6. MD6Lillestrøm H10 December
  7. MD7Milan H this match21 January
  8. MD8Sunderland A28 January

Milan

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1LBenfica H0–2
  2. MD2WSalzburg A4–0
  3. MD3Bournemouth A22 October
  4. MD4Ferencváros H5 November
  5. MD5Olympiacos A26 November
  6. MD6Sunderland H10 December
  7. MD7Levski Sofia A this match21 January
  8. MD8Ararat-Armenia H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Levski Sofia vs Milan?

The model gives Levski Sofia a 13% chance of winning and Milan 68%, with a draw at 19%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–2 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Milan?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 0.8 for Levski Sofia and 2.1 for Milan, and the match has 3 or more goals in 56% of cases.

What does this match mean for Levski Sofia?

Levski Sofia's qualification chance is 24% right now. A win would make it 54%, a draw 30% and a defeat 17%.

What does this match mean for Milan?

Milan's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 96%.

When is Levski Sofia vs Milan played?

Thursday 21 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →