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Lillestrøm vs Bournemouth: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Lillestrøm23rd, 1 pt
–Matchday 7
Bournemouth5th, 6 pts
17%Lillestrøm win
22%Draw
62%Bournemouth win

The model gives Lillestrøm a 17% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Bournemouth 62%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 18% now: a win would take it to 40%, a defeat to 11%. Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 46%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLillestrøm: top 8Lillestrøm: throughBournemouth: top 8Bournemouth: through
Now<1%18%70%>99%
Lillestrøm win1%40%46%99%
Draw<1%19%60%>99%
Bournemouth win<1%11%81%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
15%Lillestrøm clean sheet
42%Bournemouth clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lillestrøm

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LTorreense H1–2
  2. MD2DSparta Praha A1–1
  3. MD3Real Sociedad H22 October
  4. MD4Viktoria Plzeň H5 November
  5. MD5Lyon A26 November
  6. MD6Levski Sofia A10 December
  7. MD7Bournemouth H this match21 January
  8. MD8Celta A28 January

Bournemouth

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WReal Sociedad A2–1
  2. MD2WSturm Graz H3–0
  3. MD3Milan H22 October
  4. MD4Sparta Praha A5 November
  5. MD5Celta A26 November
  6. MD6Viktoria Plzeň H10 December
  7. MD7Lillestrøm A this match21 January
  8. MD8Hapoel Beer-Sheva H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lillestrøm vs Bournemouth?

The model gives Lillestrøm a 17% chance of winning and Bournemouth 62%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (11%).

Will both teams score in Lillestrøm vs Bournemouth?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lillestrøm and 1.9 for Bournemouth, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lillestrøm?

Lillestrøm's qualification chance is 18% right now. A win would make it 40%, a draw 19% and a defeat 11%.

What does this match mean for Bournemouth?

Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% right now. A win would make it 81%, a draw 60% and a defeat 46%.

When is Lillestrøm vs Bournemouth played?

Thursday 21 January, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →