Knockout Math
Latviski

Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs Celta: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00

–Matchday 7
Celta26th, 0 pts
28%Hapoel Beer-Sheva win
26%Draw
46%Celta win

The model gives Hapoel Beer-Sheva a 28% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Celta 46%. Hapoel Beer-Sheva's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 49%, a defeat to 15%. Celta's chance of going through is 64% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 44%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Hapoel Beer-Sheva: top 8Hapoel Beer-Sheva: throughCelta: top 8Celta: through
Now1%27%9%64%
Hapoel Beer-Sheva win3%49%3%44%
Draw1%25%6%57%
Celta win<1%15%16%80%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%

Other matchday 7 fixtures