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Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs Celta: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00

Hapoel Beer-Sheva24th, 1 pt
–Matchday 7
Celta29th, 0 pts
30%Hapoel Beer-Sheva win
26%Draw
45%Celta win

The model gives Hapoel Beer-Sheva a 30% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Celta 45%. Hapoel Beer-Sheva's chance of going through is 20% now: a win would take it to 39%, a defeat to 8%. Celta's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 72%, a defeat to 33%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeHapoel Beer-Sheva: top 8Hapoel Beer-Sheva: throughCelta: top 8Celta: through
Now<1%20%2%54%
Hapoel Beer-Sheva win1%39%<1%33%
Draw<1%18%1%47%
Celta win<1%8%5%72%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
23%Hapoel Beer-Sheva clean sheet
32%Celta clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Hapoel Beer-Sheva

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1DGNK Dinamo H0–0
  2. MD2LAZ Alkmaar A1–2
  3. MD3Union SG A22 October
  4. MD4OFI Crete H5 November
  5. MD5Beşiktaş A26 November
  6. MD6Juventus H10 December
  7. MD7Celta H this match21 January
  8. MD8Bournemouth A28 January

Celta

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LOmonia A0–1
  2. MD2LJuventus H1–2
  3. MD3Celtic A22 October
  4. MD4Union SG H5 November
  5. MD5Bournemouth H26 November
  6. MD6Marseille A10 December
  7. MD7Hapoel Beer-Sheva A this match21 January
  8. MD8Lillestrøm H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs Celta Vigo?

The model gives Hapoel Beer-Sheva a 30% chance of winning and Celta 45%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs Celta Vigo?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Hapoel Beer-Sheva and 1.5 for Celta, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

Hapoel Beer-Sheva's qualification chance is 20% right now. A win would make it 39%, a draw 18% and a defeat 8%.

What does this match mean for Celta?

Celta's qualification chance is 54% right now. A win would make it 72%, a draw 47% and a defeat 33%.

When is Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs Celta played?

Thursday 21 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →