Beşiktaş vs Union SG: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45
Beşiktaş4th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Union SG5th, 3 pts
41%Beşiktaş win
26%Draw
33%Union SG win
The model gives Beşiktaş a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Union SG 33%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 74%. Union SG's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 87%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Beşiktaş: top 8 | Beşiktaş: through | Union SG: top 8 | Union SG: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 25% | 85% | 40% | 92% |
| Beşiktaş win | 40% | 95% | 25% | 87% |
| Draw | 20% | 84% | 38% | 93% |
| Union SG win | 12% | 74% | 61% | 98% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 7 fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia – Celje
- Ferencváros – Juventus
- Jagiellonia – Lyon
- Lillestrøm – Bournemouth
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Benfica
- Olympiacos – Hoffenheim
- Real Sociedad – Viktoria Plzeň
- Sturm Graz – OFI Crete
- AZ Alkmaar – GNK Dinamo
- Leverkusen – Salzburg
- Celtic – Marseille
- Crystal Palace – Sparta Praha
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – Celta
- Lech Poznań – Torreense
- Levski Sofia – Milan
- Anderlecht – Sunderland
- Rennes – Omonia