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Beşiktaş vs Union SG: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Beşiktaş4th, 6 pts
–Matchday 7
Union SG12th, 4 pts
43%Beşiktaş win
26%Draw
31%Union SG win

The model gives Beşiktaş a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Union SG 31%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. Union SG's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 93%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBeşiktaş: top 8Beşiktaş: throughUnion SG: top 8Union SG: through
Now46%98%33%96%
Beşiktaş win64%>99%17%93%
Draw39%98%31%96%
Union SG win25%96%55%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
31%Beşiktaş clean sheet
24%Union SG clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Beşiktaş

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WMarseille H4–1
  2. MD2WHoffenheim A3–2
  3. MD3Crystal Palace H22 October
  4. MD4Celtic A5 November
  5. MD5Hapoel Beer-Sheva H26 November
  6. MD6Leverkusen A10 December
  7. MD7Union SG H this match21 January
  8. MD8Omonia A28 January

Union SG

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WViktoria Plzeň A3–0
  2. MD2DReal Sociedad H1–1
  3. MD3Hapoel Beer-Sheva H22 October
  4. MD4Celta A5 November
  5. MD5Lech Poznań H26 November
  6. MD6Lyon A10 December
  7. MD7Beşiktaş A this match21 January
  8. MD8Celtic H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Beşiktaş vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

The model gives Beşiktaş a 43% chance of winning and Union SG 31%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Beşiktaş and 1.2 for Union SG, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Beşiktaş?

Beşiktaş's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 96%.

What does this match mean for Union SG?

Union SG's qualification chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 96% and a defeat 93%.

When is Beşiktaş vs Union SG played?

Thursday 21 January, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →