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Real Sociedad vs Viktoria Plzeň: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Real Sociedad22nd, 1 pt
–Matchday 7
Viktoria Plzeň31st, 0 pts
57%Real Sociedad win
23%Draw
19%Viktoria Plzeň win

The model gives Real Sociedad a 57% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Viktoria Plzeň 19%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 47%. Viktoria Plzeň's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 62%, a defeat to 23%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeReal Sociedad: top 8Real Sociedad: throughViktoria Plzeň: top 8Viktoria Plzeň: through
Now5%72%<1%33%
Real Sociedad win8%84%<1%23%
Draw2%62%<1%35%
Viktoria Plzeň win1%47%2%62%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
39%Real Sociedad clean sheet
17%Viktoria Plzeň clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Real Sociedad

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LBournemouth H1–2
  2. MD2DUnion SG A1–1
  3. MD3Lillestrøm A22 October
  4. MD4Lyon H5 November
  5. MD5Crystal Palace A26 November
  6. MD6Torreense H10 December
  7. MD7Viktoria Plzeň H this match21 January
  8. MD8Juventus A28 January

Viktoria Plzeň

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LUnion SG H0–3
  2. MD2LFerencváros A1–2
  3. MD3Levski Sofia H22 October
  4. MD4Lillestrøm A5 November
  5. MD5Benfica H26 November
  6. MD6Bournemouth A10 December
  7. MD7Real Sociedad A this match21 January
  8. MD8Jagiellonia H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Real Sociedad vs Viktoria Plzeň?

The model gives Real Sociedad a 57% chance of winning and Viktoria Plzeň 19%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Viktoria Plzeň?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Real Sociedad and 0.9 for Viktoria Plzeň, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Real Sociedad?

Real Sociedad's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 84%, a draw 62% and a defeat 47%.

What does this match mean for Viktoria Plzeň?

Viktoria Plzeň's qualification chance is 33% right now. A win would make it 62%, a draw 35% and a defeat 23%.

When is Real Sociedad vs Viktoria Plzeň played?

Thursday 21 January, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →