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N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Benfica: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

N.E.C. Nijmegen27th, 1 pt
–Matchday 7
Benfica3rd, 6 pts
20%N.E.C. Nijmegen win
23%Draw
56%Benfica win

The model gives N.E.C. Nijmegen a 20% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Benfica 56%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 53% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 43%. Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 79%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeN.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: throughBenfica: top 8Benfica: through
Now2%53%91%100%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win8%78%79%>99%
Draw2%57%87%>99%
Benfica win1%43%96%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.8Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
17%N.E.C. Nijmegen clean sheet
39%Benfica clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

N.E.C. Nijmegen

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LJuventus A0–5
  2. MD2DLevski Sofia H1–1
  3. MD3GNK Dinamo A22 October
  4. MD4Omonia H5 November
  5. MD5Rennes H26 November
  6. MD6Ararat-Armenia A10 December
  7. MD7Benfica H this match21 January
  8. MD8Celje A28 January

Benfica

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WMilan A2–0
  2. MD2WCeltic H4–1
  3. MD3Omonia A22 October
  4. MD4Lech Poznań H5 November
  5. MD5Viktoria Plzeň A26 November
  6. MD6OFI Crete H10 December
  7. MD7N.E.C. Nijmegen A this match21 January
  8. MD8AZ Alkmaar H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Benfica?

The model gives N.E.C. Nijmegen a 20% chance of winning and Benfica 56%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Benfica?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for N.E.C. Nijmegen and 1.8 for Benfica, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for N.E.C. Nijmegen?

N.E.C. Nijmegen's qualification chance is 53% right now. A win would make it 78%, a draw 57% and a defeat 43%.

What does this match mean for Benfica?

Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 87% and a defeat 79%.

When is N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Benfica played?

Thursday 21 January, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →