Knockout Math
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N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Benfica: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

N.E.C. Nijmegen36th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Benfica7th, 3 pts
23%N.E.C. Nijmegen win
25%Draw
52%Benfica win

The model gives N.E.C. Nijmegen a 23% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Benfica 52%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 53%. Benfica's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 99%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

N.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: throughBenfica: top 8Benfica: through
Now9%63%82%99%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win21%83%66%99%
Draw8%63%77%99%
Benfica win4%53%91%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

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