Milan 0–2 Benfica
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Matchday 1 · Wednesday 16 September, 21:00
Benfica won 2–0 away at Milan on matchday 1. After the match, Milan are 16th with 3 points, with a 99% chance of going through (top 8: 55%). Benfica are now 3rd with 6 points, with a 100% chance of going through (top 8: 91%).
Before kick-off
What the model expected, based on team ratings before matchday 1.
Not the most likely outcome, but no big surprise either: the model gave it 26%. The model's most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the actual score had a 4% chance. Expected goals before the match: Milan 1.5, Benfica 1.1.
Chances before and now
Before matchday 1 compared with now, after all results so far (including later matchdays).
| Team | Through (top 24) | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|
| Milan | 98% → 99% | 67% → 55% |
| Benfica | 97% → 100% | 63% → 91% |
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Milan
- MD1LBenfica H this match0–2
- MD2WSalzburg A4–0
- MD3Bournemouth A22 October
- MD4Ferencváros H5 November
- MD5Olympiacos A26 November
- MD6Sunderland H10 December
- MD7Levski Sofia A21 January
- MD8Ararat-Armenia H28 January
Benfica
- MD1WMilan A this match2–0
- MD2WCeltic H4–1
- MD3Omonia A22 October
- MD4Lech Poznań H5 November
- MD5Viktoria Plzeň A26 November
- MD6OFI Crete H10 December
- MD7N.E.C. Nijmegen A21 January
- MD8AZ Alkmaar H28 January
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Milan vs Benfica?
The match finished 0–2 (Europa League, matchday 1).
Was Milan vs Benfica a surprise?
Before kick-off the model gave Milan a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Benfica 26%. Not the most likely outcome, but no big surprise either: the model gave it 26%. The model's most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the actual score had a 4% chance.
How did the result change Milan's chances?
Before matchday 1, Milan had a 98% chance of going through (top 8: 67%). Now it is 99% (top 8: 55%).
How did the result change Benfica's chances?
Before matchday 1, Benfica had a 97% chance of going through (top 8: 63%). Now it is 100% (top 8: 91%).
When was Milan vs Benfica played?
Wednesday 16 September, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 1).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 1 fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia – Sparta Praha (1–4)
- Omonia – Celta (1–0)
- Leverkusen – Celje (2–0)
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – GNK Dinamo (0–0)
- Olympiacos – Jagiellonia (2–1)
- Anderlecht – Lyon (1–2)
- Sturm Graz – Rennes (0–0)
- Sunderland – AZ Alkmaar (1–0)
- OFI Crete – Hoffenheim (2–0)
- Levski Sofia – Salzburg (0–1)
- Beşiktaş – Marseille (4–1)
- Celtic – Ferencváros (1–3)
- Crystal Palace – Lech Poznań (4–0)
- Viktoria Plzeň – Union SG (0–3)
- Juventus – N.E.C. Nijmegen (5–0)
- Lillestrøm – Torreense (1–2)
- Real Sociedad – Bournemouth (1–2)