Knockout Math
Live
EN

AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

AZ Alkmaar20th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Sturm Graz26th, 1 pt
56%AZ Alkmaar win
23%Draw
20%Sturm Graz win

The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 56% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Sturm Graz 20%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 68%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 74%, a defeat to 36%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAZ Alkmaar: top 8AZ Alkmaar: throughSturm Graz: top 8Sturm Graz: through
Now13%86%1%46%
AZ Alkmaar win19%94%<1%36%
Draw6%80%1%49%
Sturm Graz win3%68%5%74%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
39%AZ Alkmaar clean sheet
17%Sturm Graz clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

AZ Alkmaar

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1LSunderland A0–1
  2. MD2WHapoel Beer-Sheva H2–1
  3. MD3Ararat-Armenia A22 October
  4. MD4Juventus H5 November
  5. MD5Sparta Praha A26 November
  6. MD6Sturm Graz H this match10 December
  7. MD7GNK Dinamo H21 January
  8. MD8Benfica A28 January

Sturm Graz

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1DRennes H0–0
  2. MD2LBournemouth A0–3
  3. MD3Marseille H22 October
  4. MD4Celje H5 November
  5. MD5Hoffenheim A26 November
  6. MD6AZ Alkmaar A this match10 December
  7. MD7OFI Crete H21 January
  8. MD8GNK Dinamo A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz?

The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 56% chance of winning and Sturm Graz 20%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.0 for Sturm Graz, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for AZ Alkmaar?

AZ Alkmaar's qualification chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 80% and a defeat 68%.

What does this match mean for Sturm Graz?

Sturm Graz's qualification chance is 46% right now. A win would make it 74%, a draw 49% and a defeat 36%.

When is AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →