Sporting CP vs Manchester United: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
Sporting CP6th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Manchester United4th, 3 pts
41%Sporting CP win
26%Draw
33%Manchester United win
The model gives Sporting CP a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Manchester United 33%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 80%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 78%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Sporting CP: top 8 | Sporting CP: through | Manchester United: top 8 | Manchester United: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 21% | 89% | 19% | 86% |
| Sporting CP win | 34% | 97% | 10% | 78% |
| Draw | 15% | 89% | 16% | 87% |
| Manchester United win | 9% | 80% | 34% | 96% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – LASK
- Galatasaray – Aston Villa
- Arsenal – Borussia Dortmund
- Como – AEK Athens
- Feyenoord – Porto
- Manchester City – Napoli
- Leipzig – Lens
- Real Madrid – PSV Eindhoven
- Slovan Bratislava – Real Betis
- Sabah – Barcelona
- Slavia Praha – Villarreal
- Atlético de Madrid – Viking
- Club Brugge – Liverpool
- Inter – Stuttgart
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Fenerbahçe
- Lille – Bayern München
- Paris Saint-Germain – Roma