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Sporting CP vs Manchester United: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 21:00

Sporting CP12th, 6 pts
–Matchday 5
Manchester United21st, 3 pts
46%Sporting CP win
26%Draw
28%Manchester United win

The model gives Sporting CP a 46% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Manchester United 28%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 78%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 60% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 44%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSporting CP: top 8Sporting CP: throughManchester United: top 8Manchester United: through
Now13%90%2%60%
Sporting CP win22%99%<1%44%
Draw8%88%1%60%
Manchester United win4%78%6%85%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
33%Sporting CP clean sheet
22%Manchester United clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Sporting CP

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WGalatasaray H3–1
  2. MD2WLens A2–0
  3. MD3LLASK H2–3
  4. MD4Shakhtar Donetsk A3 November
  5. MD5Manchester United H this match25 November
  6. MD6Roma A8 December
  7. MD7Barcelona H20 January
  8. MD8Manchester City A27 January

Manchester United

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1WSabah H4–0
  2. MD2LAtlético de Madrid A0–2
  3. MD3LComo A1–4
  4. MD4Roma H3 November
  5. MD5Sporting CP A this match25 November
  6. MD6Leipzig H8 December
  7. MD7Bayern München H20 January
  8. MD8Villarreal A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Sporting Lisbon vs Man United?

The model gives Sporting CP a 46% chance of winning and Manchester United 28%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Sporting Lisbon vs Man United?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sporting CP and 1.1 for Manchester United, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Sporting CP?

Sporting CP's qualification chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 88% and a defeat 78%.

What does this match mean for Manchester United?

Manchester United's qualification chance is 60% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 60% and a defeat 44%.

When is Sporting CP vs Manchester United played?

Wednesday 25 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →