Knockout Math
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Sporting CP vs LASK: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October, 21:00

Sporting CP6th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
LASK27th, 0 pts
72%Sporting CP win
17%Draw
11%LASK win

The model gives Sporting CP a 72% chance of winning, a draw 17% and LASK 11%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 70%. LASK's chance of going through is 11% now: a win would take it to 32%, a defeat to 8%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Sporting CP: top 8Sporting CP: throughLASK: top 8LASK: through
Now21%89%<1%11%
Sporting CP win25%94%<1%8%
Draw11%81%<1%14%
LASK win6%70%1%32%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%

Other matchday 3 fixtures