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Sporting CP vs Barcelona: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00

Sporting CP12th, 6 pts
–Matchday 7
Barcelona8th, 6 pts
24%Sporting CP win
25%Draw
51%Barcelona win

The model gives Sporting CP a 24% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Barcelona 51%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 85%. Barcelona's top-8 chance is 71% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 46%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSporting CP: top 8Sporting CP: throughBarcelona: top 8Barcelona: through
Now13%90%71%>99%
Sporting CP win31%99%46%99%
Draw12%93%64%>99%
Barcelona win5%85%86%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.6Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
20%Sporting CP clean sheet
36%Barcelona clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Sporting CP

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WGalatasaray H3–1
  2. MD2WLens A2–0
  3. MD3LLASK H2–3
  4. MD4Shakhtar Donetsk A3 November
  5. MD5Manchester United H25 November
  6. MD6Roma A8 December
  7. MD7Barcelona H this match20 January
  8. MD8Manchester City A27 January

Barcelona

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WFeyenoord H5–1
  2. MD2WGalatasaray A4–1
  3. MD3LParis Saint-Germain A2–4
  4. MD4Aston Villa H3 November
  5. MD5Sabah A25 November
  6. MD6Manchester City H8 December
  7. MD7Sporting CP A this match20 January
  8. MD8Como H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Sporting Lisbon vs Barcelona?

The model gives Sporting CP a 24% chance of winning and Barcelona 51%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Sporting Lisbon vs Barcelona?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sporting CP and 1.6 for Barcelona, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Sporting CP?

Sporting CP's qualification chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 93% and a defeat 85%.

What does this match mean for Barcelona?

Barcelona's top-8 chance is 71% right now. A win would make it 86%, a draw 64% and a defeat 46%.

When is Sporting CP vs Barcelona played?

Wednesday 20 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →