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Atlético de Madrid vs Viking: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Wednesday 25 November, 21:00

Atlético de Madrid16th, 4 pts
–Matchday 5
Viking33rd, 1 pt
82%Atlético de Madrid win
12%Draw
6%Viking win

The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 82% chance of winning, a draw 12% and Viking 6%. Atlético de Madrid's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 82%. Viking's chance of going through is 9% now: a win would take it to 36%, a defeat to 6%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAtlético de Madrid: top 8Atlético de Madrid: throughViking: top 8Viking: through
Now24%96%<1%9%
Atlético de Madrid win27%98%0%6%
Draw8%89%0%14%
Viking win4%82%<1%36%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.8 – 0.6Expected goals
42%Both teams score
66%3 or more goals
55%Atlético de Madrid clean sheet
6%Viking clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–012%
1–09%
4–08%
2–18%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Atlético de Madrid

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1LLiverpool A1–2
  2. MD2WManchester United H2–0
  3. MD3DStuttgart A1–1
  4. MD4Bayern München H3 November
  5. MD5Viking H this match25 November
  6. MD6PSV Eindhoven A9 December
  7. MD7Bodø/Glimt A19 January
  8. MD8Fenerbahçe H27 January

Viking

1 point from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LStuttgart A1–3
  2. MD2DBayern München H3–3
  3. MD3LAston Villa A1–3
  4. MD4Sabah H4 November
  5. MD5Atlético de Madrid A this match25 November
  6. MD6Feyenoord H8 December
  7. MD7PSV Eindhoven H20 January
  8. MD8Napoli A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Atlético Madrid vs Viking?

The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 82% chance of winning and Viking 6%, with a draw at 12%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 3–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Viking?

The model gives both teams scoring a 42% chance. Expected goals are 2.8 for Atlético de Madrid and 0.6 for Viking, and the match has 3 or more goals in 66% of cases.

What does this match mean for Atlético de Madrid?

Atlético de Madrid's qualification chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 89% and a defeat 82%.

What does this match mean for Viking?

Viking's qualification chance is 9% right now. A win would make it 36%, a draw 14% and a defeat 6%.

When is Atlético de Madrid vs Viking played?

Wednesday 25 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →