Knockout Math
Latviski

Como vs AEK Athens: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00

Como5th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
AEK Athens16th, 3 pts
58%Como win
23%Draw
19%AEK Athens win

The model gives Como a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and AEK Athens 19%. Como's chance of going through is 78% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 55%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 42% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 32%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Como: top 8Como: throughAEK Athens: top 8AEK Athens: through
Now10%78%2%42%
Como win15%88%1%32%
Draw5%68%1%44%
AEK Athens win2%55%5%71%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%

Other matchday 5 fixtures