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Como vs AEK Athens: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00

Como9th, 6 pts
–Matchday 5
AEK Athens29th, 3 pts
63%Como win
21%Draw
16%AEK Athens win

The model gives Como a 63% chance of winning, a draw 21% and AEK Athens 16%. Como's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 69%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 48%, a defeat to 11%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeComo: top 8Como: throughAEK Athens: top 8AEK Athens: through
Now11%91%<1%19%
Como win15%99%<1%11%
Draw4%83%<1%19%
AEK Athens win2%69%<1%48%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.0 – 0.9Expected goals
49%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
43%Como clean sheet
14%AEK Athens clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Como

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WLeipzig H4–1
  2. MD2LFeyenoord A2–3
  3. MD3WManchester United H4–1
  4. MD4Lens A4 November
  5. MD5AEK Athens H this match24 November
  6. MD6Real Betis A9 December
  7. MD7Paris Saint-Germain H20 January
  8. MD8Barcelona A27 January

AEK Athens

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1WLASK H1–0
  2. MD2LShakhtar Donetsk A1–3
  3. MD3LManchester City A1–5
  4. MD4Real Madrid H4 November
  5. MD5Como A this match24 November
  6. MD6Galatasaray H8 December
  7. MD7Roma H19 January
  8. MD8Borussia Dortmund A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Como vs AEK Athens?

The model gives Como a 63% chance of winning and AEK Athens 16%, with a draw at 21%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Como vs AEK Athens?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 2.0 for Como and 0.9 for AEK Athens, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Como?

Como's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 83% and a defeat 69%.

What does this match mean for AEK Athens?

AEK Athens's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 48%, a draw 19% and a defeat 11%.

When is Como vs AEK Athens played?

Tuesday 24 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →