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Leipzig vs Lens: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 21:00

Leipzig30th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Lens27th, 3 pts
50%Leipzig win
25%Draw
25%Lens win

The model gives Leipzig a 50% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Lens 25%. Leipzig's chance of going through is 64% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 40%. Lens's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 67%, a defeat to 23%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLeipzig: top 8Leipzig: throughLens: top 8Lens: through
Now3%64%<1%38%
Leipzig win5%81%<1%23%
Draw1%55%<1%38%
Lens win<1%40%2%67%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.0Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
35%Leipzig clean sheet
20%Lens clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Leipzig

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LComo A1–4
  2. MD2WPSV Eindhoven H1–0
  3. MD3LReal Madrid A1–4
  4. MD4Manchester City H4 November
  5. MD5Lens H this match24 November
  6. MD6Manchester United A8 December
  7. MD7Shakhtar Donetsk H20 January
  8. MD8Feyenoord A27 January

Lens

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1WSlavia Praha A3–2
  2. MD2LSporting CP H0–2
  3. MD3LClub Brugge A0–3
  4. MD4Como H4 November
  5. MD5Leipzig A this match24 November
  6. MD6Bodø/Glimt H9 December
  7. MD7Manchester City H20 January
  8. MD8Liverpool A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in RB Leipzig vs Lens?

The model gives Leipzig a 50% chance of winning and Lens 25%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Lens?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Leipzig and 1.0 for Lens, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Leipzig?

Leipzig's qualification chance is 64% right now. A win would make it 81%, a draw 55% and a defeat 40%.

What does this match mean for Lens?

Lens's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 67%, a draw 38% and a defeat 23%.

When is Leipzig vs Lens played?

Tuesday 24 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →