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Bodø/Glimt vs LASK: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Tuesday 24 November, 18:45

Bodø/Glimt28th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
LASK24th, 3 pts
61%Bodø/Glimt win
22%Draw
17%LASK win

The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and LASK 17%. Bodø/Glimt's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 28%. LASK's chance of going through is 31% now: a win would take it to 66%, a defeat to 20%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBodø/Glimt: top 8Bodø/Glimt: throughLASK: top 8LASK: through
Now2%59%<1%31%
Bodø/Glimt win3%73%<1%20%
Draw<1%43%0%33%
LASK win<1%28%1%66%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.9 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
41%Bodø/Glimt clean sheet
15%LASK clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Bodø/Glimt

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LBayern München A0–5
  2. MD2WBorussia Dortmund H1–0
  3. MD3LNapoli A3–4
  4. MD4Lille H3 November
  5. MD5LASK H this match24 November
  6. MD6Lens A9 December
  7. MD7Atlético de Madrid H19 January
  8. MD8Club Brugge A27 January

LASK

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LAEK Athens A0–1
  2. MD2LLiverpool H3–6
  3. MD3WSporting CP A3–2
  4. MD4Slovan Bratislava H3 November
  5. MD5Bodø/Glimt A this match24 November
  6. MD6Fenerbahçe H9 December
  7. MD7Real Madrid A19 January
  8. MD8Porto H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Bodø/Glimt vs LASK?

The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 61% chance of winning and LASK 17%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Bodø/Glimt vs LASK?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bodø/Glimt and 0.9 for LASK, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Bodø/Glimt?

Bodø/Glimt's qualification chance is 59% right now. A win would make it 73%, a draw 43% and a defeat 28%.

What does this match mean for LASK?

LASK's qualification chance is 31% right now. A win would make it 66%, a draw 33% and a defeat 20%.

When is Bodø/Glimt vs LASK played?

Tuesday 24 November, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →