Villarreal vs Manchester United: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
Villarreal21st, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
Manchester United4th, 3 pts
40%Villarreal win
26%Draw
34%Manchester United win
The model gives Villarreal a 40% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Manchester United 34%. Villarreal's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 45%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 77%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Villarreal: top 8 | Villarreal: through | Manchester United: top 8 | Manchester United: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 5% | 63% | 19% | 86% |
| Villarreal win | 9% | 81% | 9% | 77% |
| Draw | 3% | 58% | 16% | 87% |
| Manchester United win | 1% | 45% | 34% | 97% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 8 fixtures
- Arsenal – Sabah
- Roma – Lille
- Atlético de Madrid – Fenerbahçe
- Borussia Dortmund – AEK Athens
- Club Brugge – Bodø/Glimt
- Bayern München – Real Betis
- Barcelona – Como
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Real Madrid
- Feyenoord – Leipzig
- LASK – Porto
- Liverpool – Lens
- Manchester City – Sporting CP
- Paris Saint-Germain – Galatasaray
- PSV Eindhoven – Stuttgart
- Slavia Praha – Aston Villa
- Napoli – Viking
- Slovan Bratislava – Inter