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Villarreal vs Manchester United: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Villarreal19th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Manchester United21st, 3 pts
43%Villarreal win
26%Draw
30%Manchester United win

The model gives Villarreal a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Manchester United 30%. Villarreal's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 64%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 60% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 44%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeVillarreal: top 8Villarreal: throughManchester United: top 8Manchester United: through
Now5%82%2%60%
Villarreal win11%95%<1%44%
Draw2%78%1%58%
Manchester United win<1%64%6%84%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
31%Villarreal clean sheet
24%Manchester United clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Villarreal

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1LBorussia Dortmund A2–3
  2. MD2WNapoli H3–1
  3. MD3LLiverpool A3–4
  4. MD4Paris Saint-Germain H3 November
  5. MD5Slavia Praha A25 November
  6. MD6Sabah H8 December
  7. MD7Fenerbahçe A20 January
  8. MD8Manchester United H this match27 January

Manchester United

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1WSabah H4–0
  2. MD2LAtlético de Madrid A0–2
  3. MD3LComo A1–4
  4. MD4Roma H3 November
  5. MD5Sporting CP A25 November
  6. MD6Leipzig H8 December
  7. MD7Bayern München H20 January
  8. MD8Villarreal A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Villarreal vs Man United?

The model gives Villarreal a 43% chance of winning and Manchester United 30%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Man United?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Villarreal and 1.2 for Manchester United, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Villarreal?

Villarreal's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 78% and a defeat 64%.

What does this match mean for Manchester United?

Manchester United's qualification chance is 60% right now. A win would make it 84%, a draw 58% and a defeat 44%.

When is Villarreal vs Manchester United played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →